Abstract
Public Good introduces a novel approach to prediction markets where a portion of every stake is automatically allocated to the cause or outcome being predicted. This creates a virtuous cycle: participants forecast the future while simultaneously funding the initiatives that make positive outcomes more likely. Our platform combines the wisdom of crowds with direct impact, transforming speculation into meaningful contribution.
Core Principles
Market Integrity
Transparent, auditable prediction markets with real-time data verification
Direct Impact
Every stake contributes to the cause, creating tangible real-world outcomes
Trust & Security
Blockchain-backed transparency with robust verification mechanisms
Near-Term Focus
Markets resolve within 6-18 months, ensuring accountability and rapid feedback
Mechanism Design
1. Stake Allocation
When participants stake on a market outcome, the stake is split into two components:
- Market Pool (70-85%): Used for payouts to winning predictions
- Impact Pool (15-30%): Directly allocated to verified beneficiaries
2. Resolution & Verification
Markets resolve based on verifiable data from trusted sources. Our multi-source verification system ensures accuracy:
- Primary data sources (WHO, CDC, academic institutions)
- Secondary verification through independent auditors
- Community challenge period for disputed outcomes
3. Beneficiary Selection
Organizations receiving impact pool funds undergo rigorous vetting. We prioritize transparency, proven track records, and measurable outcomes. All fund transfers are publicly auditable on-chain.
Use Cases
Climate Action
Predict renewable energy adoption rates while funding solar installations in developing regions
Market: 'Will global solar capacity exceed 2TW by 2026?' → Funds solar projects in sub-Saharan Africa
Public Health
Forecast disease eradication milestones while supporting vaccination programs
Market: 'Will malaria deaths drop below 400K in 2025?' → Funds malaria prevention initiatives
Education
Predict literacy improvements while funding educational programs
Market: 'Will youth literacy in region X reach 95% by 2026?' → Supports local schools and teachers
Technical Architecture
Public Good is built on a hybrid architecture combining blockchain transparency with traditional web scalability:
- Smart Contracts: Handle stake allocation, market resolution, and fund distribution
- Off-chain Computation: Real-time market odds calculation and user interface
- Oracle Network: Secure data feeds from verified sources
- Audit Trail: Complete transparency of all transactions and resolutions
Conclusion
Public Good reimagines prediction markets as a force for positive change. By aligning financial incentives with social impact, we create a sustainable model where forecasting the future helps build a better one. Our near-term focus ensures accountability, while our transparent mechanisms build trust.
We invite researchers, developers, and impact-focused organizations to join us in building this new paradigm. Together, we can harness collective intelligence not just to predict the future, but to actively shape it for the better.
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Be part of the early community shaping the future of impact-driven prediction markets.
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